Monday, April 4, 2016


With just one day before the Wisconsin Primary, there seems to be a bit of "possible shenanigans" going on with the polling data.  As late as February 21st, a Marquette poll showed Trump up by 10 points over Cruz.  (Actual polling had Trump at 30%, Rubio at 20%, and Cruz at 19%).  Thirty days later, (3/24-3/28) the same polling group miraculously found Ted Cruz up over Trump by ten points, a 20-point swing.  While most of the polling has "mild samplings" of Likely Voters, (LV's), 297-768, one poll, Optimist polled 6,182 likely voters, (an extremely high number, with a margin of error at only 1.14%), on 3/22-3/24, that had Trump up by two points over Kasich and four points over Cruz.

Suddenly, Real Clear Politics Polling, aka, RCP, (which I've trusted as a good barometer over the years), finds just enough other polls to record into their averages that drops Optimist out of the calculation, elevating Cruz from +6 to +10, with the current average lead of 6.8.  Questionably, RCP inserted a poll from Loras College, (a liberal arts institution) that polled Cruz up by 7-points to "round out" their averages, again, forcing the Optimist poll out of their averages.  I'm sure RCP would say they had to use the most current polling.

And of course, with all this "Cruz surges into the lead in Wisconsin" being nationally blasted all over the networks, few seem to question how or why some of the polling data appeared to have such a huge swing.

But wait!

(Note/Disclaimer: I'm posting this video with little or no verification, but if the polling numbers are even marginally correct, (as you follow the curser around the state of Wisconsin), come Tuesday night, there might be a ton of egg on the pollster's faces):

I'll remind you that the entire anti-Trump contingent, (including the GOPe) is banking heavily on Trump losing this state.  And with Donald Trump having a terrible couple of weeks heading into this primary, it sure is funny that the 5-Day Reuters Rolling Poll still has Trump rising nationally.

How will they, [the "respected pollsters"], explain a Trump victory in Wisconsin on Wednesday morning?  Further, how will they explain a 10-point victory over Ted Cruz, when Cruz was supposed to be leading by this same margin?

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and suggest that even the once respected pollsters gambled on, and manipulated the latest polls, in a desperate attempt to push Ted Cruz over the top in Wisconsin.  I may be wrong.  But, just in case, this writer is buying a few dozen extra eggs to go along with the crow the media and the pollsters may have to eat.

Update: Today, the American Research Group, (ARG), released a new Wisconsin poll with Trump leading by 10 points over Ted Cruz---42% to 32%, with Kasich bringing up the rear at 23%.  These results have been entered into the RCP polling that now shows Cruz up by only 4.1%, yet there are still two polls in the average, (Marquette and Fox Business), that had Cruz up by +10 points.  Still warming up the crow.

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